'Trump is bored and frustrated with Iran': why analysts fear Cuba could be next

The United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending their conflict in the Middle East, but fears remain that a frustrated President Donald Trump could soon turn his attention to Cuba.

The agreement commits both countries to negotiating a final deal within 60 days, although President Trump has warned he would “bomb the hell out of” Iran if it fails to comply.

However, analysts argue the greatest obstacle to lasting peace may not be Iran, but Israel.

“We have this weird situation where the US’s closest partner in the region is frankly the biggest problem right now in ending this war,” said Matt Duss, Executive Vice President at the Centre for International Policy.

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly does not want to cease fire,” Mr Duss told the Australia Institute’s After America podcast.

“He wants the war against Iran to continue. He wants war across the region to continue. It’s been clear … that he sees perpetual war as essential to sustaining himself in power.”

Podcast host Dr Emma Shortis, director of the Australia Institute’s International & Security Affairs program, said there had been speculation that Trump was ‘bored with this [conflict]’ and is eager to move on, with Cuba a possible new focus.

“I think unfortunately, it is very likely to happen,” said Mr Duss. “Trump is bored and frustrated with Iran.”

Mr Duss said the US President may see Cuba as an opportunity to replicate what he views as previous foreign policy successes.

“After Venezuela, which from his perspective was a big success, it was quick, it was spectacular, it was awesome. It all redounded to the ultimate glory of Donald Trump,” he said.

“I think he could be very well convinced that this is how it will go in Cuba.”

The island nation has long been a priority for US Secretary of State Marco Rubio who has advocated a hardline approach towards Havana.

“This is a very important personal issue for Marco Rubio because of his own personal history and his connection to the Cuban community in Florida,” said Mr Duss.

He said the Secretary of State was invested in Cuba “politically, personally, emotionally, intellectually” and that he and other Cuban Americans have been “agitating for much more aggressive US action for a long time”.

“I think Trump could potentially see in Cuba something that could wipe the taste of Iran from his mouth,” he said.

“But that will not go well either.

“It will not do what Trump, I think, presumably thinks it will do for him.”

Donald Trump has built his political brand on the promise that he alone could “fix” America’s problems.

It’s that belief in his own abilities, political analysts fear, will drive another conflict.

“You can almost see Trump being like, ‘I am a special kind of president, obviously I’m Donald Trump. I’m willing to do what no-one else can do,” said Mr Duss.

He said the US President may view countries such as Venezuela, Iran and Cuba as “longstanding irritants” to the United States that previous administrations had lacked the courage or wisdom to resolve.

Despite repeatedly describing himself as the “peace president”, Donald Trump has hinted at military action against Cuba, declaring in March: “I believe I will have the honour of taking Cuba.”

“Trump was never anti-war. That was fairly obvious. He was anti-losing wars … and anti-long wars,” said Mr Duss.

“If he imagines it could be a short, quick, glorious victory as he believes that Venezuela was, he will almost certainly do Cuba.”

Marco Rubio has also previously warned Cuba is in “a lot of trouble”, arguing that “having a failed state 90 miles from our shores is a threat to the national security of the United States”.