Hastie could topple Taylor and back a gas export tax: Richard Denniss

Australia Institute co-CEO Richard Denniss believes Angus Taylor’s days as Opposition Leader are numbered and the man rumoured to replace him could be open minded enough to pull the trigger on a 25 per cent gas export tax.

The economist has warned the Prime Minister risks missing out on the credit for introducing a tax that would generate an estimated $17 billion a year in revenue.

“Angus Taylor won’t be opposition leader for long, but Andrew Hastie has already said he supports a gas export tax,” said Dr Denniss during an Australia Institute webinar discussing his new Vantage Point essay, More Fool Me: How the gas industry tricked Australia.

The shadow industry minister has been described as a Liberal leader in-waiting, amid the collapse in approval ratings for Angus Taylor and the Coalition.

Mr Hastie told the Guardian’s Australian Politics podcast in March that he was open to the idea of taxing gas exports, a proposal that has garnered strong nationwide support.

“I think a lot of people, Australians, feel like the multinationals don’t have a social licence, that they’ve had a really good run of our wealth here, and so I’m sympathetic to that point of view,” Mr Hastie said.

“I just know how important those industries are to Australia, so I’d want to get it right. So, I guess I’m open-minded about those questions.”

The WA politician left the door open to supporting the levy as part of a broader plan to establish a sovereign wealth fund, pointing to Norway, whose fund is the world’s largest, worth about AU$3.2 trillion.

“I’d love to see an Australian sovereign wealth fund that sets us up for generations to come,” he said.

“Across the political spectrum, I think we need to have a conversation about balancing budgets. If we’re expecting Australian families to make their budgets work, why shouldn’t the government?”

Dr Denniss said it was only a matter of time before Mr Taylor was axed to make way for the rising Liberal star.

“Once Andrew Hastie rolls Angus Taylor, probably around summer, certainly before the next election, what if Hastie comes out first on the gas tax?” he asked.

“What if Hastie’s first out of the gate, saying, ‘Well, we’re way behind in the polls. I’ve got nothing to lose. Why don’t I just do something really, really kind of popular?’”

Australia Institute research found more than three in five Australians support a flat 25 per cent exports levy.

It was particularly popular among One Nation and Greens voters, making the proposed tax increasingly difficult for Mr Hastie to ignore.

One Nation recently opened a branch in his West Australian seat of Canning.

Despite reportedly telling his colleagues in June that he “would rather get taken out in a box than bend the knee to One Nation”, the special forces veteran is now hoping to receive preferences from Pauline Hanson’s party, as reported by the Sydney Morning Herald.

Dr Denniss said it appeared the Albanese government was reluctant to take on the gas industry.

“Labor’s political calculus is ‘well, we don’t want to move first on a gas tax because if we move first on a gas tax, the Liberals will gang up on us and the gas industry will gang up on us’,” he said.

“With Hanson and Independents and Greens now all cannibalising everything, it’s not a two-player game anymore.

“I think the bigger risk to Labor is not the risk of having a fight with the gas industry; it’s actually being outflanked either by Hanson or by Hastie,” he said.

He said that was why someone will need to take a stand before the next election.

“Labor will probably end up supporting it, but the Liberals will get all the credit for it,” he said.

“Politics is played by smart people, and when it looks dumb, you’re probably missing something, and that’s because they’re not telling you the truth.”