'Anti-achievement' Democrats let pressure off Trump

The Democrats have been criticised for “caving” to Donald Trump to end the longest government shutdown in US history, but political pundits believe the move may be part of a deliberate long-game strategy.

The party failed to secure an extension of the Obamacare health insurance subsidies it was demanding during the 43-day shutdown, which saw millions of Americans go without pay and access to food aid.

“It looks like they are back at their old tricks opposing Trump by giving him everything he wants,” said Dr Emma Shortis, the Australia Insitute’s Director of International & Security Affairs.

Speaking on the Australia Institute’s After America podcast, Crikey’s reporter-at-large Charlie Lewis agreed. “It seems to me that they could not have played it worse.”

Political commentators were left scratching their heads with Mr Lewis noting the Democrats had a “fairly strong hand”, having just secured sweeping victories in several state elections and that polling “did seem to agree that voters largely blamed the Republicans” for the shutdown.

“They’ve reopened the government without securing anything in that area expect the commitment to have another vote on it.”

However, Mr Lewis pointed out the Democrats could be playing a longer political game.

“The one potential strategy I can discern … is that’s what the Democrats have identified as an issue that they do quite well on, that they will be able to campaign on quite strongly, and it actually does them some good if 20 million people suddenly can’t afford to pay for their healthcare.”

“They don’t want to neutralise that issue in lead up to the 2026 midterms. It’s very bad policy, but it may end up being politically astute again.

“If people blame the Democrats for the fact that their premiums have gone up, then of course it’s all for nothing.”

Dr Shortis said it could also be part of a “bigger battle for the soul of the Democratic party where they still haven’t figured out amongst themselves how to oppose Trump.”

Mr Lewis pointed to a response from Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who refused to disclose if he’d voted for his party’s own candidate, now New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

“The inability to even confirm that he voted for Zohran Mamdani after, what was such an incredible campaign, no matter what you think of the guy’s politics was incredible … it’s almost like you’re fighting success.

“It it’s an anti-achievement. It’s opposing any kind of sense of momentum or cohesion in your party … it’s failure afresh and it does worry me.”

Dr Shortis questioned whether the victories showed “it doesn’t matter if Democrats can’t get their shit together” and that simply “being ‘not Trump’ might be enough”?

There’s been mounting speculation Donald Trump will attempt to run for a third presidential term, despite the US constitution’s limit of two.

Critics have questioned why he would commission a new, privately funded $300 million White House ballroom if he didn’t intend on trying to extend his time in office.

Also adding fuel to the fire, earlier this year the Trump organisation started selling red caps that read “Trump 2028”.

“Why would we have any reason to believe that when it comes to the end of his term that all his comments about wanting a third term and the fact that he probably could do it, why would we think for a second that that’s not exactly what he plans to do?” asked Mr Lewis, “… if it’s up to the Republicans, he’ll be able to do it”.

He said President Trump had achieved what no other Republican politicians have been able to do, “which is the idea that the party has now entirely distorted itself to fit with his image.”

“Also, these guys are political lifers. A president will come, a president will go, but if you want to stay in Congress or in the Senate, you’ve got donors to keep happy on a constant cycle.

“That won’t be a problem for Republicans as long as they’ve got Trump to keep them popular … I say popular, but to keep them in power.

“There’s no obvious successor to Trump. There never has been anyone who’s tried.”

Crikey’s reporter-at-large Charlie Lewis said it’s in the Republican party’s interests to keep him in office, despite being “historically unpopular as are their policies”.

While the Republicans and Democrats have both accused each other of using the Epstein files to deflect from other issues, Mr Lewis noted, “Trump is actually struggling a little bit to control the narrative in the last couple of weeks”.

“As a lifelong member of the elite, he is quite entangled in those files … It’s not going to go away. It’s inexhaustible.”

Dr Shortis agreed. “I don’t think that will necessarily be fatal to Trump,” she said. “It hasn’t been yet and we shouldn’t underestimate his ability to weave his way out of these crises.”

She expects he’ll continue to engage in his “usual tactics”, namely “calling it a hoax, focusing on the shutdown and also continuing his attacks on the media”.

The US President has threatened to sue the BBC for as much as $US5 billion for splicing together two parts of a speech he delivered in January 2021 to give the “mistaken impression that President Trump had made a direct call for violent action”.

“It was not just that it was shabby,” said Mr Lewis, “it was unnecessary.”

“We all know the role that Trump played moving up that crowd. You didn’t have to doctor anything to make your point about that day.”

Dr Shortis pointed to the role of the role of “right win and conservative networks” in the media and “the way that they linked up so cleverly”.

“The way they allow Trump to put pressure on foreign media is quite extraordinary. For those networks to facilitate Trump threatening to sue the BBC … is really something.”