The start of the FIFA World Cup would normally be a travel boom for the host countries.
The impact of Donald Trump’s regime and the operations of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents has, however, led to numerous reports that travel to the USA (which co-hosts the World Cup with Canada and Mexico) is well below expectations.
Among the numerous reasons nations bid to host a World Cup is the tourist dollars it brings in. People who otherwise would not have travelled to a country will do so for a World Cup (more so than for the Olympics).
The numbers of Australians travelling to Brazil and Russia clearly peaks in the months they hosted the World Cups in 2014 and 2018, respectively:
So, should the boom in travel to the USA not occur during the next month, there will be a lot of rushing to find blame.
While some blame could be laid at the feet of the exorbitant ticket prices, the latest arrival and destination figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal that Australians had already made up their minds about travelling to the USA well before the start of the World Cup.
In the 12 months to April this year, 693,370 Australians travelled for a short trip to the USA; 6.3% lower than the 739,730 who travelled there in the year to April 2025.
The drop was not due to Australians travelling less overall. The total number of Australians travelling for short trips rose nearly 6%, and among the most-travelled to destinations, travel to Vietnam, Sri Lanka and China soared.
But one of the more interesting aspects is that the fall in travel to the USA has not been replicated with travel to Canada. Were the drop in travel to the USA being merely a consequence of a change in tastes, for example where travel to Asia had become more popular compared to other places, then you would expect to see the numbers travelling to Canada also fall.
But that is not happening.
Prior to the November 2024 Presidential election, travel to the USA was already slowing.
Initially, the numbers did not fall. This was a consequence of using annual travel numbers and the fact that most trips are booked well in advance.
But by the middle of last year, it was clear the Trump effect was having an impact:
Where travel to Canada is 13% higher than the 2024 average, and travel to all other nations is 17% higher, travel to the USA is 3% lower.
Australians have taken a good look at the United States under Donald Trump and decided it is best to go elsewhere for a holiday.