Every Presidency runs an implicit profit and loss account. The Trump presidency is no different. But the profit and loss account is: Trump’s personal profits from the office of President are in the billions, while America’s losses in terms of authority, credibility, legitimacy and standing are spiralling by the day.
Sat 18 Jul 2026 00.00 AEST
The White House/Flickr
Every Presidency runs an implicit profit and loss account. The Trump presidency is no different. But the profit and loss account is: Trump’s personal profits from the office of President are in the billions, while America’s losses in terms of authority, credibility, legitimacy and standing are spiralling by the day.
For Australia, which for eighty years has proclaimed its dependence on the US, this precipitous decline in American power matters. It matters vitally. For if our national security relies on a partner that goes missing in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s predatory behaviour, is hopeless in dealing with the consequences of its own predatory behaviour towards Iran, and leaves Venezuela in the lurch in the face of a cataclysmic natural disaster, we are in real trouble. Where else can we go?
The answer is simple: nowhere. We need to start relying on ourselves. And that, curiously, is easier done than said.
America is reeling from a huge double whammy — the total failure of leadership at the personal and cabinet level within the Trump administration, combined with the catastrophic decline in public ethics and private morality. Without leadership, there can be no statesmanship. Without ethics and morality, there can be no rule of law. And in the leadership/morality vacuum, anarchy or autocracy (sequentially, usually both) thrive.
In Australia, we’re in a much better position. Our courts are independent and apolitical. Our parliaments actually represent the people (we should be grateful for compulsory and preferential voting). Our political leaders do not pocket vast amounts of cash as a result of novel speculation. Our law enforcement institutions do not act on the whim of our Prime Ministers or Premiers. Across the board, separation of powers works in Australia.
That is critically important when it comes to the security of citizens and national security more broadly. But not everything in Australia is operating for the best in this sometimes best of possible worlds.
The Federal Government continues to capitulate to the mining industry on the export of fossil fuels. It carbonises the atmosphere at a time of uniquely dangerous heat waves and wildfires in Europe and North America (Toronto’s air quality is on a par with New Delhi’s) and a massive El Niño event. And it refuses to capture a reasonable rate of royalty return from the export of natural gas, thereby imposing some discipline on the use of methane.
Our leading corporates — the Big Four banks, along with Qantas, Rio Tinto and Telstra — have a history of putting commercial gain (not to mention illegality) ahead of ethical practice. And as Josh Bornstein has so forcibly made clear in The New Daily, the Big Four accounting firms continue to pursue greed and sharp practice in dudding taxpayers through their outrageous fees.
As they collect more and more in revenue, they erode the ability of the public service to do its job. As Bornstein says, it’s a vicious circle. The more governments outsource, the more they diminish the public service. The weaker the public service, the greater the need to outsource.
We have much to learn from America, especially the words of wisdom of the great Yankees catcher Yogi Berra: “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” It’s high time that we took a serious look at the implications of the Trump presidencies for Australia’s future as a constructive and leading democracy in Asia and the Pacific. The constant genuflection to old myths (America saved us in WW2) and new assumptions (Australia will inevitably be involved in a US-China conflict) erodes both our self-possession and self-respect. More than that, it erodes our long-term security, because on the day of need America will inevitably be elsewhere.
Australia’s future security rests not on the annihilation of the human race in a nuclear war, but on the interlocking sets of rules that underpin prosperity, security and stability. While defensive military preparations are a prudent precaution in the face of possible regional armed confrontation, energetic and sustained diplomacy is the investment most likely to deliver long-term benefit.
In the world of rules-focused diplomacy, Australia has form. Just as Evatt was a key negotiator in the creation of the UN Charter in 1945, so now is the time to take up the challenge once again. As America drifts and a new set of players emerge, our national interest rests upon sound, agreed and enforceable rules. And because we are in an entirely new game, we need entirely new rules.
We’ve done it before and we can do it again. The hard thing is to say that we need to.
Allan Behm is an advisor in the Australia Institute’s International and Security Affairs program.
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