Recent Victorian Crime Statistics Agency data shows that youth offending is decreasing in the state, while in September a Senate inquiry found the same trend is occurring nationally. Yet here we are again with 'tough on crime' announcements from the major parties dominating the state election campaign.
Wed 28 Oct 2026 01.00 AEDT
Photo: AAP Image/James Ross
Victorians will go to the polls on 28 November with youth crime falling, but you wouldn’t know it from the papers or nightly news.
Recent Victorian Crime Statistics Agency data shows that youth offending is decreasing in the state, while in September a Senate inquiry found the same trend is occurring nationally.
Yet here we are again with ‘tough on crime’ announcements from the major parties dominating the state election campaign.
We are caught in a feedback loop between political announcements and sensationalist media reporting that is creating fear in the community and driving more reporting and announcements. Polling from Freshwater last month confirms this is keeping crime top of Victorians’ minds just five weeks out from polling day.
The constant announcements are the political equivalent of drinking three litres of Coke a day – satisfying in the moment, but over time it will make you sick.
‘Tough on crime’ promises Victorians that it’s possible to police, prosecute and imprison our way to a safer community. The evidence shows us this is simply wrong.
What we get instead of lasting community safety is police overreach, judges unable to exercise judgement, and runaway prison costs. We get more crime, more victims and more reaction.
According to the Sentencing Advisory Council, Victoria’s prison population grew by 62% in the 20 years to 2024, while the number of people held on remand more than tripled.
Over the same period, Victoria’s population grew only 39% and per capita criminal incidents fell.
According to the Productivity Commission, Victoria spends about $2.6 million a year on average to lock up a single child.
These increases in incarceration and costs are not driven by crime. They are policy choices.
Kids coming into contact with police and the courts have often experienced family violence, abuse or neglect. These children are victims in their own right, and we have let them down.
The quality of our child protection, family support, mental health, disability, homelessness and school systems determine whether or not our kids are set up for a good life built around education, employment and community belonging.
Quality research, analysis, explainers and factchecks from experts you can trust.
This is where we need real political toughness. We must be relentless in ensuring that kids and families are not left to struggle and fail without the safety net they need.
I have seen it firsthand in my own family, where cycles of victimisation and abuse have led to child removal, foster and residential care, school disengagement, homelessness and justice system contact.
I have seen kids whose hands I held walking into their prep classroom for the first time run through these systems and still be in and out of homelessness and the courts in their 30s.
Victoria’s own experience shows that when policy shifts toward prevention and justice reinvestment, youth detention numbers can fall without any corresponding increase in crime.
Well-designed and well-funded community-based interventions can reduce re-offending more reliably than our current over-reliance on incarceration.
‘Tough-on-crime’ politics is also toxic for the politicians who practise it.
For the Government, it constantly reminds voters about crime and stokes fears that our communities are not safe. Media announcements and social posts amplify the level of danger. Over time, well-founded worries spiral into moral panic.
Fearful voters will have crime on their minds when they enter the polling booth. They will not be voting on issues like health, education, jobs, social services or infrastructure – the things that shape their lives and future opportunities.
Even for the Opposition, it is a double-edged sword. If elected, they will have fewer tools to prevent and respond to crime and future trends in offending.
In a world where ‘lock them up’ is the only acceptable answer, both crime and fear will continue to grow. A divided community is not a safe place for any of us.
We can choose real solutions, like family support and justice reinvestment, or we can keep and chasing the sugar hit.
Just don’t be surprised when our justice system and community continue to get sicker.
Daniel Scoullar is Director of Policy and Advocacy at the Federation of Community Legal Centres.
