Australia’s first rule of COP Club: do not talk about fossil fuels

Two COP speeches in 24 hours. One from the Prime Minister of Australia, one from the Minister for Climate Change and Energy. Again, we witness the PR strategy from our government. First rule of COP Club: do not talk about fossil fuels!

Neither the Prime Minister nor the Minister for Climate Change named fossil fuels as the cause of dangerous global warming. Neither said the words coal or gas. Albanese’s speech did not even use “fossil fuels” once. Bowen’s used it twice, as a statistic for investment and jobs, but never as the cause of the floods, fires, marine heatwaves and life-threatening extreme weather events.

That is not an accident. Speeches at this level are coordinated, drafted, lawyered and signed off.

What the silence protects

Australia is the third-largest fossil fuel exporter in the world. Emissions from our coal and gas burnt overseas have almost doubled since 2005, from 681 million tonnes to almost 1,200 million tonnes last financial year. Since 2022, the Albanese government has approved 38 new, expanded or extended coal, oil and gas projects.

Name “fossil fuels” as the problem, and the next question is obvious. What are you doing about your role in the problem? So, the words stay out, and the speeches talk about “energy security”, a “polycrisis” and “the climate crisis”. A crisis that, according to the framing of these speeches, has no identifiable cause and therefore is a crisis with no culprit.

The Pacific as a story, not a policy

Albanese opened with the story of meeting Melelusi Sokotia, a 13-year-old from Tuvalu during Pre-COP meetings. She did not mince her words about what was needed. She asked for strong homes and strong water systems and strong action on global warming.

Now look at what the Pacific has asked of Australia. Tuvalu’s Climate Minister, Dr Maina Talia, says talking about meeting 1.5 degrees means acting on the phase-out of fossil fuels. He has warned (repeatedly) that Australia cannot claim to be a good member of the Pacific family while expanding fossil fuels. Vanuatu’s Ralph Regenvanu says the minimum expected of a major producer is to stop expanding – that means stop approving new ones.

The Prime Minister chose the story that asked Australia for help. He left out the ones that asked Australia to phase out fossil fuels with urgency. Listening is only a virtue if it leads to action. Australia’s fossil fuel subsidies since 2020 are almost six times our aid to the Pacific. That is the real size of our commitment to Pacific family and climate action.

35% by 2035 electrification does not mean renewable

Bowen called the 35 percent by 2035 electrification pledge the first of COP31’s priorities. Lifting electricity from a fifth of our energy grid to a third is a nice goal. But read the pledge text.

It does not require that the electricity be renewable. It talks about “diverse and sustainable” sources, lists “emissions abatement and removals” among the approaches, and says each country keeps full authority over its own plans. It describes electrification as complementary to renewables, not dependent on them. Nuclear counts. Gas power sold as clean can count. It does not contain the words fossil fuels as a non-starter in this pledge either.

Bowen has said he wants as much of the electricity as possible to be renewable. ‘As much as possible’ is the key element in this target. The pledge only means progress on climate if electrification is powered by renewable energy.

A country can raise electricity’s share of its energy while still extracting and burning more coal and gas. The electrification stats go up. Yet the emissions do not come down. It is a target any petrostate can sign, and that is why it will be signed and celebrated loudly.

Households doing the work on rooftop solar

Both speeches leaned on the same achievement. Albanese said one in three households have installed rooftop solar and boasted of 600,000 home batteries in a year. Bowen said households and communities are leading the transition.

He’s right, they are. Australians have bought rooftop solar faster than almost anyone on earth. That is a real success, and it belongs to households, not the government.

But households do not approve mines. Households do not sign off on Browse gas or Hunter Valley Operations coal. Households do not hand out $16.3 billion in fossil fuel subsidies. Holding up what families did on their roofs, to distract from what government is approving, is greenwashing government inaction, with households getting on with it.

The domestic numbers are shaky too. Australia Institute analysis shows the Safeguard Mechanism is failing to drive real emissions cuts, with fossil fuel companies using more than two-thirds of the unlimited offsets available to our largest polluters.

Name the problem, deliver the solution

Australia signed the Belém Declaration. It committed to a transition away from fossil fuels. Neither speech mentioned it.

The test is not warm words and good vibes in Antalya. The test is whether this COP ends with Australia naming fossil fuels as the cause, releasing a transition roadmap that starts with no new approvals, and ending the subsidies. And whether the government says no to Browse and no to Hunter Valley Operations.

Melelusi and the people of Tuvalu do not need another story told about them. They need Australia to be honest about the problem and solution and then act on it.

Louise Morris is an award-winning advocate with 20 years’ experience encompassing climate, energy, forest protection, and law reform in the not-for-profit sector, and federal politics before joining The Australia Institute.