One of conservative media's favourite stories is finding property and fund manager researchers to speculate about how much house prices will fall. When you look at the data though, maybe it's time to calm the farm about these falling house prices.
Mon 22 Jun 2026 13.40 AEST
Photo: AAP Image/James Ross
One of conservative media’s favourite stories is finding property and fund manager researchers to speculate about how much house prices will fall.
Morgan Stanley suggested a 10% national fall.
Today, we have SQL Research suggesting a 9% fall in Sydney.
Ok, so what does that mean? Let’s assume that by December, house prices were 9% below what they were last year.
Well, we have the latest figures for median house prices in Sydney, and the news is that in March, they were already down on the December 2025 $1.56m peak prices (interest rate rises do that).
A 9% fall would send the median house price in Sydney all the way down to $1.4m, or back to where they were in September 2024.
At that point, they would still be 41% higher than they were 6 years earlier in December 2020.
For reference, since December 2020, private-sector wages in NSW have so far risen just 18%.
Had house prices since then merely risen in line with wages, the median house price in Sydney would be $1.178m.
To get to there, we wouldn’t need a 9% fall, we would need a 24% fall.
So maybe calm the farm about falling house prices…
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