As is always the case with Trump, it’s hard to separate the signal from the noise. Here are the basics.
Wed 7 Jan 2026 06.00
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Well, happy new year.
In case it wasn’t already clear, the Trump administration has started 2026 as it means to go on: with violence, in defiance of any sense of the rule of law or respect for international codes of behaviour.
As is always the case with Trump, it’s hard to separate the signal from the noise. Here are the basics.
On Saturday afternoon Australian time, a US military operation hit the city of Caracas, capital of the oil-rich nation of Venezuela, in South America.
As most media coverage would have it, US forces “captured” or “took” Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a “precision” attack.
What the Trump administration did was invade a sovereign nation and kidnap the head of state, killing an as yet unknown number of people in the process.
Maduro and Flores were transferred to a US warship and flown to America. In a New York court, Maduro has pleaded not guilty charges of conspiracy to commit narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and possessing machine guns.
The Trump administration is applying US domestic law extra-territorially. They’re arguing that if someone breaks an American law but isn’t in America, they can just go and get them and bring them to US soil to face the charges.
That’s not how it works. And it’s definitely not how it works when it comes to heads of state – however despotic and illegitimate.
Or at least, it didn’t used to be.
What the Trump administration has effectively done is normalise deposing governments (commonly described as “regime change”) and taking over other countries, because he can.
It’s not like the US hasn’t done that before – it has a long history of doing just that (see: Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc etc)! As usual, Trump is taking the mask off. But it’s also true that this is different.
Trump is already threatening the interim leader of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, with the same fate as Maduro, if she doesn’t do exactly what he wants. He threatened Colombia too. The wife of one of Trump’s most powerful advisors, Stephen Miller, posted a map of Greenland covered in the US flag with the caption “soon”.
The message isn’t subtle.
This is a violent revival of American empire and it doesn’t stop with Venezuela.
No leader is safe. Alliances mean nothing. International law has been yeeted out of the window. Lawlessness is the new operating paradigm, not just for the US but for its competitors, China and Russia.
You’ll read lots in the next few days about how Maduro is a bad guy. And he is! But there are plenty of bad dudes in positions of power out there. And plenty of people Trump doesn’t like. So why Venezuela specifically?
My colleague Allan Behm has written a great piece on just this. All the justifications you’ll read, mostly about the threat of “narco-terrorism”, are meaningless.
This was a show of dominance, in line with what senior Trump administration officials have been calling for – no one can dare oppose American (read: Trump’s) interests. As Secretary of “War” Pete Hegseth is so fond of saying (without ever being brave enough to actually swear, because he’s a weenie), “eff around and find out”.
The Trump administration wants total control of the “western hemisphere” – that is, North and South America and surrounds (which is why there’s so much focus on Greenland – because it’s close to the US).
Lots of analysts have taken that to mean that they’ll leave the other hemispheres to other powers – namely, Russia and China.
Don’t bet on that. Figures like Vice President JD Vance and Miller have been saying for a long time that they’ll interfere in European politics to support the resurgence of the far-right there. And there are also lots of people in that administration who can’t deal with the idea of Chinese power threatening American dominance.
The precedent they’ve set here applies everywhere. Including to the United States’ traditional allies (yes, that means us). Trump’s America will intervene where and when it chooses.
In Venezuela and Latin America more broadly, the outlook is grim. Trump has said that the US will “run” Venezuela, though nobody knows what that actually means because there’s no logic to it.
It’s hard to see how this turns out any better than other American attempts at regime change. The Trump administration has no care for the stability or security of Venezuela or the Venezuelan people.
Further instability in South America will also have flow on effects – more people will be forced to flee, putting pressure on immigration systems, burdening neighbours, and playing into the fearmongering and violently racist mass deportation programs of the Trump administration.
Globally, the outlook isn’t much prettier.
The response of most of the rest of the world has been dismayingly weak. The total breakdown of international law – flawed as it was – makes the world more dangerous for everyone. Without law, there can be no stability, security or prosperity. There can be no peace.
This isn’t normal, and it can’t be treated as such.
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Experts say the insertion of US special forces into Caracas and the abduction of President Maduro was a precision tactical operation.
The United Nations (UN) Security Council will hold an emergency meeting in New York with UN Secretary-General António Guterres “deeply alarmed” by the United States’ attack on Venezuela.
