Hope for Net Zero in Trump politics

Our time in history is about net zero. In Australia two major political parties have now decided to cancel net zero but are also saying they still believe in the Paris Agreement. This confusion should be addressed as it’s trying to have Trump’s populist denial of climate whilst somehow suggesting they are still part of the historical need to reduce emissions.

The Paris Agreement, signed by 197 nations in 2015, was an historic moment as it was based on a preliminary report, the Groundswell Initiative, created by UN COP 21 Chair Christiana Figueres who wrote a book about the process that developed Paris called ‘The Future We Choose’. The Groundswell Initiative was a fundamental step forward that cannot be neglected by political parties trying to change history, especially using Trump-oriented politics.

The Groundswell Initiative was thrashed out by a large group of global organisations representing business and major global environmental groups. Perhaps for the first time, certainly at a global COP event, the market and the environment addressed climate change together and found common ground.  Nations across the world were thus given confidence that both business and the environment would benefit from this net zero transition.

When major environmental groups and business groups can agree on climate policy it is very hard for politicians to do other than say ‘we agree lets get on with this’. The momentum for net zero change was thus started.

Paris became a legally-binding International Treaty in 2016 with 194 nations adopting the net zero by 2050 target to be updated every 5 years. The momentum continued when legal status for net zero was powerfully provided by the International Court of Justice in 2025. The unanimous opinion stressed that business, states and cities will be found to break international law if found to be greenwashing about net zero.

The USA under President Trump pulled out first in 2021 and again in 2025. He believes climate change is a hoax so he fully supports the fossil fuel industry who are desperately fighting to show they will last most of this century providing the global fuels of choice.

I don’t think they can continue this charade. The net zero agenda is unstoppable.

Cancelling Paris didn’t work the first time for the US. In 2021 the ‘We Are Still-In’ movement showed that 60% of the US economy wanted to continue with the net zero transition. The global financial world saw the new market could provide economic and climate benefit. Similar signs are now evident in the 2025 withdrawal, especially with AI-based smart technology integrating solar into everything.

The future as set out in the Paris Agreement has two stages as in Figure 1 below.

 

We have rapidly begun the net zero transition, especially in cities. The dramatic data on the global adoption of solar, wind, batteries and EVs is happening in ways that is like a waterfall after the Paris Agreement.

Clean energy investment is projected by IEA to reach a record US$2.2 trillion in 2025, double the investment in fossil fuels and more than four times what it was just a decade ago. Solar and wind were 76% of world new electricity capacity in 2024 with nuclear almost zero, showing that the solar surge is the fastest energy transformation in history.

If such trends are projected, the world will use more renewables than fossil fuels in the late 2020’s. Cities and towns everywhere are adopting renewables with multiple innovations in how smart systems can integrate these technologies into every electric function.  Thus around 80% of the net zero transition seems now to be unstoppable.

The only likely issue will be the lost momentum in R&D on the last 20% of decarbonization: industrial processing of minerals, concrete, aviation and shipping, which are still not commercial. Many of these industries are in regional areas, perhaps explaining the split in Australian politics.

Economic change has been driven by waves of innovation in five other periods of dramatic change like we are now seeing. The five major financial collapses have all been associated with a ‘creative destruction’ process, as described by Joseph Schumpeter . The old way goes and the new emerges, so everyone, especially political leaders, need to adapt and welcome it.

The creative destruction process is mostly happening now in the political and economic changes happening in our cities, where solar-electric systems are creatively working well. The hard changes, many depending on hydrogen becoming commercial, are likely to spread into regions in the next decade as suggested by IPCC.

Big changes are happening in all professions as we go into this ‘maelstrom’ of change, as Edgar Alan Poe described their changes in 1841 from the creative destruction of the first wave of industrial innovations.

Greenwashing is now emerging as a major factor for professionals in the transition. ASIC are showing that companies cannot continue their ‘creative accounting’. Politicians need to see how quickly Trump politics can collapse under such credibility issues.

There is much cause for hope on net zero. There is enough happening as we go over the waterfall to see a better future now emerging. It is hard to imagine how the politics of Trump and the cancel culture of the Australian Liberal and National parties, can prevent the net zero transition.

Peter Newman is Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University, and has been part of IPCC for the past 15 years. His new book Net Zero Cities with Sustainability: A Practitioner’s Approach, is from Edward Elgar.