In one month, South Australian voters will deliver an electoral reality check

Looking for a break from federal politics? The South Australian election will take place on 21 March this year, and will be a proving ground for national political trends like the rise of One Nation and experiments with political donation laws.  

Labor under Premier Peter Malinauskas has been polling very well, and unless something dramatic changes I would expect them to be re-elected.  

However, it will still be worth a watch –  

First test of South Australia’s dramatic changes to political finance.

South Australia is experimenting with banning most political donations, in exchange for entirely funding the election campaigns of sitting MPs and established parties. New entrants get a small loan ($5,000) and can accept donations below $5,000 to try to catch up.  

Will challengers be able to overcome these incumbency benefits? 

Do One Nation’s polling results translate to seat gains?

Federal polls suggest One Nation is about as strong in South Australia as it is anywhere; does that extend to state politics and – if so – can One Nation turn polling numbers into votes? 

This will be the first electoral test for the minor party since its remarkable surge last year.  

Despite all the hype around One Nation, the proof will be in the pudding. They are running candidates in all lower house seats and some people are breathlessly talking about them becoming the Opposition after the election (mirroring commentary regarding Nick Xenophon and his party back in 2018, in which they failed to win a single lower house seat).

While One Nation appear to be on track to take a seat in the upper house, as they did at the last election, that is a long way from achieving major party status. 

Are there green shoots for the Liberal Party?

The South Australian Liberals’ difficulties are mostly familiar ones for those following other branches of the party: leadership spills following long periods of poor polling; failure to stay in government even after winning office briefly; and a membership that is notably more right-wing than its voting base.   

If the Liberals can make progress in South Australia, that makes things more promising for them elsewhere too.  

What does the upper house look like?

The more likely a comprehensive Labor victory in the lower house, the more interesting the upper house becomes. Will the upper house crossbench be one the Malinauskas Government finds easy to work with or hard?  

Greens, independents, One Nation and minor parties like Nick Xenophon’s old outfit SA-BEST are all possibilities for upper house seats. 

In this term, Labor has enjoyed a fairly biddable crossbench. Thanks to Labor winning five of the 11 seats up for election in 2022, the Government has only needed two crossbench votes to pass legislation.  

Things could get even easier for the Government after the election. If Labor repeats its performance and wins five seats, they will need just one crossbencher vote to pass legislation. If Labor wins six seats (unlikely, but possible) and can convince a non-government member to sit in the President’s chair again, then they will have complete control of the Parliament. 

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If any of that whets your interest, election expert Ben Raue has made his South Australian election guide free to access – as is Casey Briggs’ over on the ABC.