Lightweight Libs have Labor laughing all the way to an early election

In five days, Anthony Albanese will become Australia’s longest-serving prime minister since John Howard.

He will equal Scott Morrison’s record of 1368 days on Thursday. On Friday, he’ll surpass him, leapfrogging both John Curtin and Morrison, to sit behind Paul Keating as the 12th longest-serving prime minister.

Short of his party moving against him, Albanese is almost certain to win another term as Prime Minister.

The Coalition is 28 seats behind. Even if there was a “thruplition” with One Nation, the Liberals, Nationals and Barnson would have to hold their existing 43 seats and win another 27 to take government.

And don’t expect that election to be held in 2028. New deputy leader Jane Hume was right last week when she said expected Albanese to take advantage of the Liberal Party’s decline and call an early election.

Labor is already eyeing off Forrest, La Trobe, Longman and Goldstein as potential seat gains. Bowman will be on the list.

The Liberals, or Nationals (depending on who wins that fight), will have a tough time holding on to Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer, with One Nation on the march and a community independent having already shorn 10 points off Ley’s margin at the last election. It is very doubtful the Liberals or Nationals will run another woman in Farrer, which will leave the Coalition with just enough women in the lower house to fill a 2016 Honda Civic. That’ll be sure to arrest the number of women turning their back on the party!

So let’s imagine an election next year. The only thing stopping Albanese from storming it will be his own party and, given this caucus, that is very unlikely.

He’ll win his third election and be well-placed to take on Bob Hawke’s record as the third longest-serving prime minister.

It does not matter what the Coalition does, or doesn’t do. Angus Taylor, the man responsible for many of the Liberal Party’s most infamous policy gaffes (there are so many Labor had television and online ads ready to roll out the moment the leadership spill was announced) is not going to save it.

It doesn’t matter that he’s an “old-school Liberal” (whatever that means). He’s a terrible communicator, lacks any sort of awareness outside of his own little realm, and is primarily concerned with Angus Taylor. That’s not going to arrest the conservative slide.

And the idea that Hume is a “moderate” is as laughable as Sussan Ley being a “moderate” – moderate in this modern Liberal Party just means you want to cut migration only from non-white countries and you like tax cuts.

Trying to pretend that the Liberal leadership contest meant anything other than another step in the party’s decline, while Australia has an unassailable government that – short of divine intervention – cannot lose the next election, is part of the reason we got here.

Albanese won battles fought at the University of Sydney in the 1980s. He’s outlasted Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull in office. He’s eclipsed Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd. He’s about to run past Morrison. And all for what? To be wonderfully cautious?

The conservatives have destroyed themselves in the process, but they have been victorious in creating a Labor Party that governs in their memory. One of the reasons the Liberals have crashed over the past two elections is because Labor has filled the space they would usually claim, while the Liberals have run so far to the right that their main opponent is One Nation.

The Liberals have swapped one lightweight for another – and this lightweight is someone Labor is actively relishing the chance of taking down, an easier prospect now that gender won’t be an issue.

Albanese helped lead Ley down the path to her own destruction in retaliation to her decision to politicise the horror of Bondi. But taking down Taylor is being treated almost as a sport – the moment he emerged as the leader, Labor released not just two highly produced attack ads, it also had a shit sheet that ran six pages of all of Taylor’s gaffes sent to journalists.

That Labor is celebrating Taylor’s leadership is another sign that none of this matters. His script is all but written – he’ll most likely lead the Coalition to the next election, lose and then Andrew Hastie will scoop up whatever is left.

It doesn’t matter. The focus should be on the government, not the sideshow in the rearview mirror. Albanese is cementing a legacy of cautious, centrist incrementalism at a time when he could be making reforms that would make a material difference in people’s lives, addressing the inequality and stacked deck that has plagued Australians for the past 30 years.

His legacy so far, is losing the Indigenous Voice referendum and inviting the head of state of a country credibly accused of genocide to Australia.

Yes, Australia has maintained a low unemployment rate in its inflationary battle, and yes there have been incremental wins in wages. But Albanese has the power to change the country; Gough Whitlam managed it in just under three years.

The stability of Labor’s electoral success doesn’t matter if it keeps leaving people behind. Not being Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie will only appeal for so long.