One month ago, Sussan Ley was the leader of the Liberal Party. Two weeks later, she retired from Parliament altogether after losing the leadership to Angus Taylor. And now, Speaker of the House Milton Dick has announced the date for the by-election to replace her: Saturday the 9th of May
Fri 6 Mar 2026 01.00
Photo: AAP Image/Lukas Coch
One month ago, Sussan Ley was the leader of the Liberal Party. Two weeks later, she retired from Parliament altogether after losing the leadership to Angus Taylor. And now, Speaker of the House Milton Dick has announced the date for the by-election to replace her: Saturday the 9th of May.
Ley’s seat of Farrer, which spans most of the NSW side of the Victorian border, including the town of Albury, will go into a campaign frenzy as Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and Independents all seek to succeed the former Liberal leader.
The heated competition will make this a significant early test for Angus Taylor’s leadership of the embattled Liberal Party.
So, who are the candidates likely to be, and what will the campaign look like in this sprawling rural electorate?
Sussan Ley had been the member for Farrer for almost 25 years, since 2001, when she won the seat following Nationals leader Tim Fischer’s retirement.
After seeing off the Nationals’ candidate in 2001, the Coalition agreement guaranteed that Ley would not face an opponent from the junior Coalition partner for the rest of her time in politics.
Until 2025, Ley held the seat with over 60% of the vote in every election, leaving it classified as ‘Safe’ by the Australian Electoral Commission.
But at last year’s election, independent Michelle Milthorpe gave her a run for her money, reaching 20% of the primary vote and reducing Ley’s two-candidate preferred margin to just 6%.
The Liberal hold on the seat is further in doubt because of the party’s crashing poll numbers, now below 25% in most opinion polls.
Milthorpe has continued to campaign in the community since the 2025 election and will be a candidate in the by-election. Having been 6% away from winning the seat less than a year ago, Milthorpe will likely be a top contender.
One Nation has confirmed that it will contest Farrer, though it is yet to find a candidate. With the party polling in a clear second place in national opinion polls, Farrer will be one of the first tests of whether the party’s high polling numbers convert into actual votes.
Helen Dalton, member for the NSW state seat of Murray, which covers much of the same area as Farrer, has said her phone had been “burning up” in the wake of Ley’s exit, and is considering a run for the Federal seat. Dalton was elected as a member of Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers in 2019, but left the party three years later over a bill on water usage in the Murray-Darling basin. In 2023, she was re-elected to Murray with a 16% margin. Two of the people “burning up” her phone were Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, with Dalton initially considering a run with One Nation. Since then, One Nation has announced its pre-selection shortlist, and Dalton doesn’t appear.
The National Party seems likely to mount a challenge for the seat it lost 25 years ago.
Labor hasn’t reached 25% of the vote in Farrer since 2007, and would be unlikely to run a candidate, especially in what will likely be a crowded field.
The Greens have little chance of victory in Farrer, having received 4.9% of the vote in 2025, but state MP Amanda Cohn, who lives in Farrer, has confirmed the party will run a candidate.
The right-wing minor parties Family First and People First have also announced plans to run.
With a Liberal, a National, two independents, and a One Nation candidate all possible contenders for the seat, this may end up as a five-cornered contest.
Some projections put One Nation in pole position to win the seat, though these are based on national polls, and can’t take into account the complexity of candidate personalities and the by-election campaign.
Both independents are well-placed, and both the Liberals and Nationals have held the seat in the past.
One issue likely to feature in the campaign is Australia’s gas exports. A Redbridge poll in February, commissioned by The Australia Institute, found that One Nation voters overwhelmingly support gas corporations paying a 25% tax on gas exports, with 67% agreeing. Perhaps in line with their voters, One Nation recently announced a policy to charge the gas industry royalties instead of giving Australia’s gas away for free.
Whichever way Farrer goes, it’ll be a watershed moment for Australia’s political parties. It could hurt or help Angus Taylor in the early days of his leadership, inspire independent candidates to run in other rural seats, or galvanise the right-wing vote behind the surging One Nation.
Now that the date for the by-election has been announced, campaigning will begin in earnest. And on Saturday the 9th of May, the people of Farrer will choose their new member.
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