Latest emissions data shows business as usual won’t cut it

The latest greenhouse gas emissions data has been released, showing that in 2025, total emissions fell 2.1% compared to 2024. And while this represents good news, unfortunately the pace remains well below what is needed to reach the government’s 2023 and 2035 targets, let alone achieve the cut in emissions required for Australia to do its share to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels.

In 2025, Australia’s greenhouse gas emission were 10.3Mt CO2 lower than in 2024. Pleasingly, the fall was across electricity generation, fugitive emissions, transport, and stationary energy.

This contrasts with the picture since 2005, where 86% of the drop in emissions has been due to the inclusion of land clearing, which has meant Australia has been able to take advantage of the reduction in land clearing compared to 2005 (and previously 1990 for the Kyoto agreement) to make it appear as though our emissions cuts have been more impressive than they have been in reality.

The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) has also recalculated sequestration rates (essentially the reduction in emissions due to trees) and found that they have slowed to more typical levels following a period of La Niña conditions.

Using better satellite imagery and analysis, the department upwardly revised emissions in 2022–23 for forests converted to other land uses, and reduced the net sink for land converted to forest land in 2022–23:

But regardless of the changes, it remains clear that Australia – like other nations – when not counting land clearing, our emissions reductions since 2005 would be utterly dismal.

While we have begun to reduce emissions since the peak after the pandemic of June 2023, the decline is nowhere near enough to meet the government’s targets of 43% below 2005 levels, by 2023 nor 62% below 2005, by 2035.

Were Australia’s emissions to fall at the rate they have since the middle of 2023, we would reach net zero in 2080 – some thirty years later than the 2050 target, and 45 years after the 2035 target which scientists advocate is required to limit the rise in global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels.

Australia needs to pursue much faster emissions reductions and push for great reductions internationally. The emissions reductions are welcome news, but they only serve to highlight that business as usual will not cut it.