Factcheck: Is WA really 'running out of gas'? No, gas companies will export almost 10x as much WA gas as they'll supply domestically

WA Premier Roger Cook has recently claimed that, despite being one of the world’s largest gas exporting regions, Western Australia is facing a gas supply shortage, and it may be ‘forced’ to allow gas fracking in the Kimberley if Woodside’s controversial Browse Basin LNG project does not proceed.

This led to an avalanche of criticism, including the claim that Cook and the WA gas industry have manufactured a ‘fake gas shortage’, and that if the state’s domestic gas reservation policy was properly enforced, there would be no need for new gas developments.

The Premier’s claims of a looming gas shortage came just days after he publicly joined the WA gas industry in lobbying for the Albanese Government’s proposed gas reservation (which would see more gas diverted from exports to the domestic market) not to be applied in WA. According to Cook, WA’s current domestic gas reservation is working just fine, thanks very much.

Confused? You aren’t the only one.

Let’s take a look at the data to see if the Premier’s claims stack up.

WA is not running out of gas – gas companies are projected to sell almost 10 times as much WA gas overseas as they will supply to the domestic market

The Premier’s claim regarding a gas shortage follows a report released late last year by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). In its WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (that’s its real name), AEMO warned that the WA domestic gas market could face a shortfall from the early 2030s.

If you use a lot of gas, as mining companies operating in WA, like Alcoa, do, that may sound concerning.

However, the AEMO data also reveals that in the same period that the ‘shortfall’ is projected, gas companies operating in WA will be selling the vast majority of the gas they produce to overseas customers.

In the years 2025 to 2034, AEMO projects that LNG exporters will sell almost 10 times as much gas overseas as they will provide to the WA domestic market, and around 6 times more than the entire WA domestic gas demand.

This tells us that WA does not have gas shortage – the state has a gas export problem that is enabled by policy settings that Premier Cook refuses to change.

Data from AEMO WA Gas Statement of Opportunities 2024 and 2025

Western Australia’s domestic gas reservation policy is failing – gas companies are gaming the system to maintain high local gas prices and maximise export revenue

Western Australia has a nominal policy to require 15% of production to be supplied to the WA domestic market, however the WA Government has let gas companies get away with supplying far less than this for years.

A Parliamentary Inquiry into the state’s domestic gas supply arrangements found that on average gas exporters operating in WA had delivered just 8% of their production to the WA domestic market since exports began. Some facilities, such as Woodside’s Pluto facility, are providing far less than that on an annual basis. An alliance of domestic gas users in WA recently reported that from 2017 to 2025, Woodside delivered just 3.4% of production to the local market from the Pluto facility, estimating that the company banked more than $5 billion by exporting gas that should have been reserved for local use.

There are several reasons why it is strongly in the interests of gas companies to withhold gas from the domestic market.

• Gas companies make more money selling Australian gas overseas, where they receive higher prices and can more easily shift profits overseas to avoid paying tax in Australia.
• Limiting supply to the domestic market drives up gas prices for consumers. That means bigger profits for gas companies at the expense of Australian homes and businesses.
• The resulting shortage of gas in the domestic market is used by gas companies and governments as a reason to fast-track controversial and environmentally damaging new gas developments with highly favourable terms, such as zero royalties and weak regulations.

To prevent WA gas consumers from being ripped off by gas exporters, the WA Parliamentary Inquiry into Domestic Gas reservation recommended a number of reforms, including legislating the existing 15% domestic gas requirement and improving transparency so that consumers can see how much gas producers are actually providing to the local market.  The WA Cook Labor government has flatly refused, claiming that the current ‘flexible’ arrangements are adequate.

This leads to the absurd situation where Premier Cook claims that the state would be ‘forced’ to frack the Kimberley or drill for gas under Scott Reef to supply the ‘shortfall’ in the local market. All because he refuses to enforce his government’s own domestic gas policy.

AEMO’s projections reveal an ongoing failure of WA’s domestic gas policy. If the policy were enforced, the shortfall would be eliminated entirely without the need for new gas developments

Despite the WA reservation policy nominally requiring 15% of production to be reserved for local use, analysis of AEMO projections reveals that only around 12% of production from WA’s export terminals is expected to be provided to WA consumers during the period the market operator projects a shortfall in the domestic market.

This should be no surprise to the Cook Government, because the data reported by AEMO on expected domestic supplies is provided by a WA Government agency. Every year, the WA Department of Energy and Economic Diversification (DEED) politely asks gas companies how much gas they expect to sell to WA homes and businesses in future years. The agency would not have to ask this question if the 15% reservation was enforced, but the ‘flexible’ arrangement allows gas companies to choose how much they supply in any given year.

Given the vast amounts of gas that are exported from WA, a small percentage of this production can make a huge difference to the WA domestic market. Analysis published by Climate Analytics shows that if WA gas exporters were required to meet the full 15% domestic gas allocation, then the projected supply gap could be eliminated until at least 2034, and likely for a considerable period after that.

In 2034, the domestic gas “shortfall” projected by AEMO is equal to just 1.5% of projected WA gas exports in that year.

This shows that the claimed shortfall in WA’s domestic gas market is a fabrication designed to serve the interests of gas exporters operating in WA; to make it seem like there is no choice but to accept highly damaging new gas developments such as Browse Basin or Kimberley fracking. The reality is that these projects would not be required if the Cook Government were acting in the interests of West Australians by enforcing its domestic gas reservation policy.

The gas being exported from WA belongs to the Australian people, not multinational gas companies. Previous research published by the Australia Institute shows that gas companies receive the vast majority of the gas they sell royalty-free, meaning they pay nothing for the gas that earns them hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue when they sell it overseas.

If Australian governments are unwilling to make gas companies pay for the gas they export, then the companies must be forced to give a fair share of the gas back to the Australians who own it.

Piers Verstegen is an independent energy analyst and researcher in Western Australia and the lead author of Australia’s Great Gas Giveaway.